Source: Abby Wilson, MoneySavingExpert, "Mortgage fixes under 5% disappearing – should you lock in now, go for a tracker or wait?", created 20 October 2026, updated 22 October 2026.
Our view
Three previous pieces on this site have tracked mortgage rates climbing since early September — the average new deal rising, then the Bank of England signalling a possible rise of its own, then five-year averages touching 6%. This update is different in one specific way: it isn't about the average any more. It's about the floor. MoneySavingExpert's own reporting puts the cheapest deal a broker can currently find for a remortgaging household at 4.99% over two years — meaning there is, right now, no genuinely cheap way back into a mortgage starting with a 4. A year ago the cheapest remortgage deals started at 3.88%. That gap is the real story: it isn't that rates went up a bit more, it's that the bottom of the market moved with them.
The second thing worth saying plainly, because it's easy to miss in a story about rising numbers: nobody quoted in MoneySavingExpert's reporting is calling this a crisis. Trinity Financial's Aaron Strutt put it about as calmly as a broker can: "It is not the best time, but there have been worse times." The job this week isn't panic, it's making sure the decision you're about to make — fix, tracker, or wait — is based on what's actually on offer today, not on what a mortgage cost when you last looked.
What's actually changed
MoneySavingExpert splits its figures by purpose, and both have moved. For homebuyers taking out a new mortgage, the cheapest two-year fix on the market is now 4.78% and the cheapest five-year is 4.95% — both up from 3.87% and 3.98% a year ago, before the conflict in Iran began. For remortgagers replacing an existing deal, the cheapest two-year starts from 4.99% and the cheapest five-year from 5.06%, up from 3.88% and 3.98% a year ago.
AJ Bell's Sarah Coles, head of personal finance, told MoneySavingExpert: "Rates have climbed significantly since the start of the Iran war. They've risen particularly quickly over the past few weeks, as hopes faded for a resolution. It's putting real pressure on affordability, which has significantly dampened demand for property at a time of year which usually sees buyers flock to the market." The driver is the same one this site has reported since September: conflict-driven energy price volatility feeding through into what lenders expect to pay to borrow over the next two to five years — not the Bank of England's own Bank Rate, which has sat at 3.75% through six consecutive holds, with its next decision due on 5 November 2026.
Illustrative household: £200,000 outstanding on a repayment mortgage with 25 years left to run, at the cheapest rates MoneySavingExpert reports for each date.
- Cheapest two-year remortgage fix a year ago, 3.88%: £1,042.47 a month.
- Cheapest two-year remortgage fix now, 4.99%: £1,168.02 a month — £125.55 a month more, £1,506.58 a year more, for the same borrowing.
- Cheapest five-year remortgage fix now, 5.06%: £1,176.18 a month — £122.72 a month, £1,472.59 a year more than the 3.98% available a year ago.
The two-year and five-year cheapest rates are only about 8p apart on this balance — £1,168.02 against £1,176.18 a month — which is why several of the brokers below say the fix-length decision now comes down to your own view of where rates go next, not which term is obviously cheaper.
What the brokers are telling borrowers
MoneySavingExpert spoke to four named mortgage experts, and their advice splits into three strands rather than one single answer.
On fixing now: Mortgage Advice Bureau's Kate Fuller said "if your current rate is ending, then taking a new mortgage product is always better than sitting on a variable rate. Fixing is still a good idea for those that cannot absorb any further increases to rates, and also those who just don't want the anxiety of not knowing what their rate might be next month." L&C's David Hollingworth agreed borrowers are leaning this way: "with so much uncertainty and other costs like utilities rising, many borrowers will still like the budgeting certainty that a fixed rate offers."
On two years versus five: neither broker will call this one for you. Fuller said it "largely depends on your attitude to risk. If you prefer certainty, then a longer-term fix can work for you. If you would rather take a risk on rates reducing, then a shorter fix can work." Hollingworth was blunter still: "this question is one reserved for those with the benefit of a crystal ball, unfortunately. We tend to see the biggest split between those opting for two-year and five-year fixes… rates are quite similar, so it all comes down on what people think could happen next."
On a tracker instead: both brokers said more borrowers are asking. Fuller: "we are seeing trackers sitting around 0.75 percentage points to 1 percentage point lower than comparable fixed rates right now, so there is quite a bit of movement in the base rate that could be absorbed before we are at the fixed rate levels." Hollingworth: "the fact that the base rate hasn't moved at all yet means that the initial rate is substantially lower than a corresponding fixed rate." Both are describing the same mechanical fact — a tracker is cheaper today because it moves with Bank Rate, which hasn't risen, while fixed rates have already priced in a possible future rise.
What it means for a real household this week
If your existing fixed deal ends in the next few months, the brokers' advice is consistent: do something rather than drift onto your lender's standard variable rate, which is almost always the most expensive option on the table. A tracker is the cheaper starting point right now, by 0.75 to 1 percentage point on the brokers' own figures, but it carries the risk of moving upward if the Bank of England's 5 November decision — or a later one — does raise Bank Rate. A fix costs more from day one but removes that risk entirely for the length of the deal. Which is right depends on whether a further rate rise would actually hurt your budget, which only you can answer, and a regulated broker can model against your real numbers rather than an illustrative one like the £200,000 example above.
For a first-time buyer, the number that matters is the new-purchase figures — 4.78% and 4.95% — rather than the slightly higher remortgage figures. The rise from 3.87%/3.98% a year ago is real and should be built into any budget you're working from if you started house-hunting before the Iran conflict began, but it's a smaller jump in absolute terms than what a remortgaging household on an old sub-4% deal is facing.
What to do this week
- Check your own deal end date. If it falls within the next six months, most lenders let you reserve a new rate now and switch to something cheaper if rates fall before you complete — reserving early rarely leaves you worse off than waiting. Our guide to when to use a mortgage broker covers how that reservation window works.
- Get the fix-versus-tracker numbers run against your actual mortgage, not an illustrative one. A regulated broker can show you the real monthly figures for your balance and term, including what a tracker would cost if Bank Rate does rise on 5 November.
- If the new payment itself is the worry, not which product to choose, that's a budgeting conversation worth having before you sign anything — our budgeting guide is the place to start, and if it's tipping into a genuine struggle, free, independent help from MoneyHelper, StepChange and National Debtline is available today.
What's still uncertain
Kate Fuller's own forecast is hedged, and for good reason: she expects fixed deals to "stay fairly steady" for the next couple of weeks, but said a rate rise from the Bank of England "might" push them up further — not that it will. The next concrete checkpoint is the Bank's decision on 5 November 2026, which this site has been tracking since the Bank's six-way hold in September. Whether the conflict driving energy prices up resolves, and how quickly that would feed through to mortgage pricing if it did, isn't something any of the brokers quoted were willing to put a date on. What is fixed today is the rate you can actually get: 4.99% and 5.06% for a remortgage, 4.78% and 4.95% for a new purchase, both achievable right now rather than a forecast of where things might go.
For how this fits with the Bank Rate decision itself, see our piece on the Bank's September hold and rise signal; for the average-rate trend building to this point, see five-year mortgage rates hitting 6% and the remortgage cliff we first covered in September.
Where coaching ends and advice begins. Understanding why rates have moved, what a fix-versus-tracker decision actually costs, and when to start the reservation process is coaching. Choosing a specific mortgage product, lender or term is a regulated decision, and Buzz Money Coach does not make it for you. Buzz Money Coach is a trading style of Buzz Accounting Ltd, which is not authorised by the FCA to give regulated financial advice and does not give it. Where you need a regulated recommendation we say so and can introduce you to Equity & General, authorised and regulated by the FCA (No. 474163) — entirely optional, with no obligation, and if you become their client E&G pay Buzz a commission, which we tell you before the introduction rather than after. If the worry is affording your mortgage at all, MoneyHelper, StepChange and National Debtline give free, independent help today.